The United States consumes a large share of its GDP; China, not so much. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and the US consumes.
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Back during the Financial Panic of 2008, clickbait media kept screaming “Hyperinflation.” We consistently pushed back against this theme, and argued inflation
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Conventional wisdom was that the tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration would cause higher inflation and slower growth – stagflation as far as the eye
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Moody’s finally downgraded US government debt on May 16th to Aa1, its second highest rating. With the US $36 trillion (and rising) in debt, it’s not hard to
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Milton Friedman, Art Laffer and other market-believing economists had their long day in the sun during the 1980s and 1990s. Tax rates fell and government
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Back on January 10, 2025, it cost $1.024 to buy one Euro. Last Friday, the $/Euro exchange rate was $1.125 – a drop in the value of the dollar of about 10%.
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Noise about tariffs, business uncertainty, a constitutional fight, and a drop in stock prices had already created fear of a recession. When real GDP declined
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As we have written…The Era of Easy Everything is ending. Part of this involves bringing inflation back to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. We could
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We’ve expected a recession for more than a year now. Simply put…the Era of Easy Everything is Over. Expanding deficits and easy money (that have lifted the
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Quantitative Easing was different during COVID than during the Financial Panic of 2008. During COVID, M2 growth soared, while it was held back during the
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The Federal Reserve started raising short-term interest rates three years ago and the M2 measure of the money supply – what Milton Friedman said to focus on –
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Anxiety has been building over the last several weeks about what the Trump tariffs would look like. The S&P 500 peaked on February 19 and experienced a 10%
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