Pretty much every month there’s one week that has the most important economic reports. For the month of August that’s this week. The reports this week include
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As Milton Friedman taught us many decades ago, monetary policy works with long and variable lags. Recent economic reports suggest that the long and variable
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There are signs US economic growth is slowing down. In particular, jobless claims, perhaps the best high-frequency economic indicator, have averaged 235,000
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We aren’t naturally cynical about economic data, but there are things that don’t add up about the job market.
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In 1852, Karl Marx said "Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but
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Back in the early days of COVID, there was one key indicator that signaled or predicted the high inflation ahead: the M2 measure of the money supply. Unlike in
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With a Presidential election less than five months away, expect to hear a great deal of discussion about inequality: the gap between the rich, the poor, and the
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One of our main contentions in recent months is that the Federal Reserve, by switching from a scarce reserve model to an abundant reserve model, has completely
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Two reports on home prices arrived this morning, one for the Case-Shiller index and another from the FHFA (a government agency that regulates Fannie Mae and
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Back in 2008, the Federal Reserve made important changes in the way it handles monetary policy. We’ve written about them several times, but few really
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One theory making the rounds is that if President Trump gets back into office, inflation is going to surge. The idea is that if he returns, Trump will raise
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If the financial markets have a religion, we think we know what it is: a deep and abiding faith in the ability of an omniscient Federal Reserve to ride to the
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