The Federal Reserve started raising short-term interest rates three years ago and the M2 measure of the money supply – what Milton Friedman said to focus on –
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Anxiety has been building over the last several weeks about what the Trump tariffs would look like. The S&P 500 peaked on February 19 and experienced a 10%
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During the ten years prior to COVID, PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, averaged about 1.5% per year. Jerome Powell said it was too low and he wanted
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In spite of severe polarization on so many issues, there is at least one thing that Americans agree on across the entire political spectrum, left, right, and
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Every so often we hear a theory that makes sense superficially but on closer examination doesn’t add up. The most recent one is that the Trump Administration
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It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone
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Is the US already in recession? Probably not. But in the first quarter, real GDP is very likely to have a minus sign in front of it. Yes, a negative reading
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We have called inflation “political kryptonite” because it is so damaging to politicians. Clearly, inflation played a role in the 2024 election. So now that
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The Framers of the Constitution designed our government to be small. Not so small and weak as the one under the Articles of Confederation, which the
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The federal government gets a great deal of grief when it issues economic reports and it’s not hard to see why. The last several years include lots of reasons
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The Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it’s not about to cut short-term interest rates again anytime soon, which is good news if you’d like to see
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As economists and financial market forecasters, we are constantly amazed at how so many people analyze, forecast, research, and discuss important topics without
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