As we recently argued, investors don’t need to worry about the federal government shutdown showdown causing a recession. Before the current shutdown, the
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Over the past two and one-half decades the federal government has buried taxpayers under a mountain of debt, now approaching $38 trillion.
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No one, that we know of, is saying Artificial Intelligence (AI) isn’t an amazing new technology that will have an important impact on life, investing, and the
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Economic data are all over the place. GDP keeps growing in spite of signs of weakness in the labor market. Tariff policy is volatile, immigration has slowed
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The stock market surged to new highs after the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate last week and the futures market has priced in more cuts to come.
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If a tree fell in the woods, but the data said it didn’t, does it really mean anything?
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Over the past twenty years, in spite of incredible new technologies, US real GDP growth has averaged just 2.0% at an annual rate. By contrast, in the twenty
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For the past two years, we have been warning that the stock market is overvalued. While our capitalized profits model is simple, it is more complex than just
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Last Friday, Jerome Powell gave the Fed Chief’s annual speech at the Kansas City Fed’s 2025 meeting in Jackson Hole, WY. He said the balance of economic risks
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Recently, due to deals President Trump is making, some are saying the United States has embarked on a version of Chinese-style “state capitalism” – directly
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At the last meeting two weeks ago, Chairman Jerome Powell got the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates, but not without a struggle.
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In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s much anticipated Employment Report it seemed like the judgement from analysts, talking heads, and even markets was
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